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It is with great regret that we have been informed about the primary conviction of seven Italian scientists, considered responsible for the loss of human life during the recent earthquake in L'Aquila. With deepest respect for each and every human life lost due to this natural disaster, the Hellenic Society for Earthquake Engineering, would like to note the following:
- It is
commonly accepted within the scientific community worldwide, that there cannot
be a short-term prediction of earthquakes, nor can it be an accurate
determination of the space, time and intensity of a future seismic event. For
this reason, it is practically impossible to take any essential precaution
measures for the protection of citizens in an area that is sufficiently narrow
and within a reasonably short period of time. Citizens and the State ought to
know the limits of scientific knowledge and to accept the large uncertainties
associated with the prediction of seismic activity, which is unfortunately
still impossible to overcome. From a scientific point of view and in accordance
with all international guidelines and state-of-practice, the Italian colleagues
acted as any other scientist would have in a similar position.
- The
criminalization of the inherent scientific inability to exceed the current
state of knowledge, is not only unjust for the persons in charge of the Italian
National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks, who have
contributed at a great extent in the mitigation of seismic risk. It is expected
to inactivate all relevant Civil Protection Departments in Italy and worldwide,
which will be reluctant to act in the future based on actual data. This phobic
crisis management may also result into a seriously misleading assessment of the
probabilistic nature of seismic hazard. This fact alone may have severe
consequences on the economic and social life of all regions exposed to seismic
risk internationally. Most importantly, it raises serious questions regarding
the way in which the State and society view the scientific progress as a whole.
Based on
the above, we would like to express the full and unreserved support of the
Hellenic Department of Earthquake Engineering to the convicted colleagues. We
do hope that the Italian Authorities will beneficially assess the validity of
our allegations.
Prof.
Kyriazis Pitilakis
Chairman
of the HSEE
Assist. Prof. Anastasios Sextos
Secretary of HSEE
HELLENIC SOCIETY
for EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING [ HSEE ]
Member of
the Ιinternational Association
for Earthquake Engineering
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